Nifty’s Next Move Hinges On 22,300–22,680 Breakout Zone

“The daily RSI stands at 40, indicating a lack of bullish momentum. However, a positive crossover in the daily MACD suggests the possibility of an upward move. Nifty continues to trade without a clear direction in the broader trend. The range of 22,300–22,680 will be crucial in determining the next breakout, as a move beyond this zone could set the course for further action. The immediate support is positioned at 22,300, while a decisive close above 22,600 will be essential to confirm a sustained uptrend,” said Om Mehra, Technical Analyst, SAMCO Securities.

Mar 12, 2025, 8:27 am IST

Nifty Bank Outlook By Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Analyst, SAMCO Securities

Nifty Bank index is teetering on the edge, hovering near a critical support zone, with negative global cues and sectoral weakness adding to the uncertainty. Despite this, bulls have managed to defend 47,800, showing resilience at lower levels. For a sustained uptrend, the index must reclaim 48,200 and build momentum above this resistance. The 47,800–48,000 zone remains a key demand area, supported by strong put writing activity, reinforcing a short-term base for the index. However, call writers have fortified the 48,500–49,000 resistance zone, signalling a tough supply area that could cap any sharp rallies. A convincing breakout above 48,200 is essential for bullish momentum to resume, while persistent call writing at higher levels remains a major hurdle for sustained upside movement. Considering the current cautious sentiment and limited directional momentum, a range-trading strategy appears optimal. As long as the index holds above 47,800, buying on dips remains a viable strategy, while 48,550 remains a key resistance ceiling for further upside potential.

Mar 12, 2025, 8:26 am IST

Bank Nifty Options Market Insights By Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Analyst, SAMCO Securities

The derivatives market reflects a growing bearish sentiment, with call writers showing stronger conviction than put writers, signalling increasing skepticism among traders. The 49,000-call strike has amassed a massive open interest of 17.29 lakh contracts, establishing 49,000 as a key resistance level, while the 48,000 put strike has seen 14.79 lakh contracts in put writing, reinforcing 48,000 as critical short-term support. The 47,800–49,000 range remains a battleground, with heavy positioning from both call and put writers, creating a tug-of-war scenario. Meanwhile, the Put-Call Ratio (PCR) edged up slightly to 0.93 from 0.92, reflecting a neutral-to-bearish sentiment. The Max Pain level at 48,600 indicates that buyers are attempting to stabilize the index, but persistent call writing at higher levels could restrict any significant upside movement.

Mar 12, 2025, 8:25 am IST

Nifty Outlook Today By Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Analyst, SAMCO Securities

Nifty index is showing signs of resilience despite global headwinds and a sharp gap-down opening. A strong recovery from the 22,200-22,300-support zone has reinforced bulls’ dominance at lower levels. However, for an extended bullish momentum, the index must sustain above 22,500 and clear its previous day’s close convincingly. This demand zone, fortified by heavy put writing, has emerged as a crucial safety net for the index. However, the 22,700-22,800-resistance zone remains a major obstacle due to persistent call writing and technical barriers. Bulls need to protect the 22,200 level to create a foundation for potential upside moves. A decisive breakout beyond the 22,700-22,750 range is required to trigger a sustained rally, but continued call writing and resistance at higher levels may cap immediate upside potential. Given the market’s hesitant momentum, a ‘Range Trading’ strategy appears to be more suitable in the current market environment. As long as Nifty holds above 22,200, buying on dips could be a favourable approach, with 22,750 acting as the key resistance level that must be breached for a breakout.

Mar 12, 2025, 8:24 am IST

Nifty Options Market Insights By Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Analyst, SAMCO Securities

The derivatives market reflects a guarded sentiment, with put writers displaying slightly stronger conviction than call writers, indicating cautious optimism among participants. A substantial open interest buildup at the 23,000-call strike (1.49 crore contracts) highlights this level as a formidable resistance. On the flip side, aggressive put writing at the 22,000 strike (1.10 crore contracts) reinforces a solid floor for the index. The 22,200–22,700 range has seen a strong accumulation of both call and put positions, setting up a classic tug-of-war scenario. Put writers are steadily increasing their exposure at lower levels, emphasizing the formation of a strong demand zone. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has risen from 0.78 to 1.07, reflecting a tilt toward bullish sentiment as traders add long positions. Meanwhile, the Max Pain level at 22,500 suggests that bulls could continue absorbing selling pressure despite the market’s cautious undertone.